Pontedera 2-2 Lucchese — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 6 Mar 2024

📅06/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.53
Draw
25%
3.04
Away
41%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.67
Over 2.5
41%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.85
No
55%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.74
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.26
6+ Goals
10%
21.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.74 — our 31% vs market 30.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
15%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
20%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
36%
-1.8pp
25%
Draw
30%
-4.1pp
41%
Away Win
35%
+5.9pp
59%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.8pp
41%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
50%
-5.0pp
55%
BTTS No
50%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pontedera EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Lucchese EU Bookmakers 38%
+3% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +10%
1.16/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/0.63
+0% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +76%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
314 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 369 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pontedera
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Lucchese
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 2
29.10.2023 Lucchese Lucchese 1-2 HT 1-1 Pontedera Pontedera İTC
15.01.2023 Pontedera Pontedera 0-0 HT 0-0 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
14.09.2022 Lucchese Lucchese 1-1 HT 0-0 Pontedera Pontedera İTC
20.02.2022 Lucchese Lucchese 1-2 HT 1-0 Pontedera Pontedera İTC
16.10.2021 Pontedera Pontedera 2-3 HT 2-2 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
07.03.2021 Lucchese Lucchese 2-1 HT 1-0 Pontedera Pontedera İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pontedera
2-2
AWAY Lucchese
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Pontedera vs Lucchese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pontedera and Lucchese couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Lucchese at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Pontedera had 50% of the ball to Lucchese's 50%, shots finished 11-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Pontedera and 1.33 for Lucchese.

What was the final score of Pontedera vs Lucchese?

Pontedera 2-2 Lucchese in the Italy - Serie C on 06/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pontedera vs Lucchese?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lucchese win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Pontedera 34%, draw 25%, Lucchese 41%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lucchese) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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