CRB 1-0 Chapecoense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.89
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
27%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.62
Over 2.5
34%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
1.99
No
62%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
38%
2.46
2-3 Goals
38%
1.74
4-5 Goals
17%
4.43
6+ Goals
7%
23.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.46 — our 38% vs market 33.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
18%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
49%
-6.7pp
30%
Draw
27%
+3.1pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+3.6pp
66%
Under 2.5
58%
+7.7pp
34%
Over 2.5
42%
-7.7pp
38%
BTTS Yes
46%
-8.7pp
62%
BTTS No
54%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CRB EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Chapecoense EU Bookmakers 27%
+2% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +15%
1.25/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.26
+14% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / +12%
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
356 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 77%
18.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
18.9 Crosses 14.3
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CRB
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Chapecoense
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.46 xG 1.24
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
326 Passes 303
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 2
26.08.2024 Chapecoense Chapecoense 0-0 HT 0-0 CRB CRB BR2
11.05.2024 CRB CRB 2-0 HT 2-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2
08.11.2023 CRB CRB 3-2 HT 2-1 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2
09.07.2023 Chapecoense Chapecoense 2-1 HT 0-0 CRB CRB BR2
05.10.2022 CRB CRB 2-1 HT 1-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2
22.06.2022 Chapecoense Chapecoense 1-2 HT 1-1 CRB CRB BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CRB
1-0
AWAY Chapecoense
1.08 xG 2.28
38% Ball Possession 62%
13 Total Shots 23
8 Shots on Target 12
3 Corners 6
247 Passes 442
79% Pass Accuracy 89%
15 Box Touches 27
12 Crosses 37
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH CRB vs Chapecoense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CRB edged past Chapecoense 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had CRB as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (62%) came in.

On the day, CRB had 38% of the ball to Chapecoense's 62%, shots finished 13-23, expected goals 1.08 to 2.28 — the balance of chances actually favoured Chapecoense.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, CRB had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for CRB and 1.00 for Chapecoense.

What was the final score of CRB vs Chapecoense?

CRB 1-0 Chapecoense in the Brazil - Serie B on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CRB vs Chapecoense?

Before kick-off our model rated a CRB win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split CRB 42%, draw 30%, Chapecoense 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CRB), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (CRB) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR2 More Brazil - Serie B
5 Apr 2025
01:00 Goias vs Amazonas Analysis →
03:00 Paysandu vs Atletico Paranaense Analysis →
03:00 Criciuma vs Operario PR Analysis →
22:00 Coritiba vs Vila Nova Analysis →