Coritiba 1-0 Vila Nova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.82
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
26%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.68
Over 2.5
39%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.96
No
59%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
33%
2.63
2-3 Goals
42%
1.73
4-5 Goals
17%
4.09
6+ Goals
8%
20.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.63 — our 33% vs market 30.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
21%
X/2
8%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
51%
-3.5pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.5pp
26%
Away Win
22%
+4.1pp
61%
Under 2.5
56%
+5.2pp
39%
Over 2.5
44%
-5.2pp
41%
BTTS Yes
47%
-5.6pp
59%
BTTS No
53%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Coritiba EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Vila Nova EU Bookmakers 25%
+4% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -4%
1.51/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.07
+17% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +6%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
320 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 78%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.2
21.6 Crosses 16.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Coritiba
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Vila Nova
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.91 xG 0.78
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
300 Passes 333
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Box Touches 12
20 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.10.2024 Vila Nova Vila Nova 0-3 Coritiba Coritiba BR2
29.06.2024 Coritiba Coritiba 1-1 HT 0-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
18.09.2021 Coritiba Coritiba 1-0 HT 1-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
20.06.2021 Vila Nova Vila Nova 0-1 HT 0-0 Coritiba Coritiba BR2
19.10.2019 Vila Nova Vila Nova 2-2 HT 2-0 Coritiba Coritiba BR2
24.07.2019 Coritiba Coritiba 2-0 HT 1-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Coritiba
1-0
AWAY Vila Nova
1.39 xG 0.20
69% Ball Possession 31%
13 Total Shots 6
2 Shots on Target 0
11 Corners 1
449 Passes 160
85% Pass Accuracy 66%
26 Box Touches 7
31 Crosses 3
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Coritiba vs Vila Nova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Coritiba edged past Vila Nova 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Coritiba as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (59%) came in.

On the day, Coritiba had 69% of the ball to Vila Nova's 31%, shots finished 13-6, expected goals 1.39 to 0.20.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Coritiba had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Coritiba and 0.50 for Vila Nova.

What was the final score of Coritiba vs Vila Nova?

Coritiba 1-0 Vila Nova in the Brazil - Serie B on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Coritiba vs Vila Nova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Coritiba win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Coritiba 48%, draw 26%, Vila Nova 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Coritiba), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Coritiba) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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