Vila Nova 0-3 Coritiba — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 19 Oct 2024

Vila Nova
0-3
Coritiba
📅19/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie B – 2024

Vila Nova vs Coritiba Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.27
Draw
31%
2.94
Away
28%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.59
Over 2.5
36%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.95
No
60%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
38%
2.47
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
15%
4.82
6+ Goals
8%
27.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.47 — our 38% vs market 34.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
13%
X/X
17%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
40%
+0.9pp
31%
Draw
30%
+0.8pp
28%
Away Win
30%
-1.7pp
64%
Under 2.5
59%
+5.1pp
36%
Over 2.5
41%
-5.1pp
40%
BTTS Yes
47%
-6.9pp
60%
BTTS No
53%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Vila Nova v Coritiba — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vila Nova EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Coritiba EU Bookmakers 33%
-5% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -24%
1.19/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/1.24
-11% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -7%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
308 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 79%
15.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.6
20.6 Crosses 17.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5

Vila Nova vs Coritiba Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vila Nova
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Coritiba
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.94 xG 0.93
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
326 Passes 321
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
13 Box Touches 13
21 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
29.06.2024 Coritiba Coritiba 1-1 HT 0-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
18.09.2021 Coritiba Coritiba 1-0 HT 1-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
20.06.2021 Vila Nova Vila Nova 0-1 HT 0-0 Coritiba Coritiba BR2
19.10.2019 Vila Nova Vila Nova 2-2 HT 2-0 Coritiba Coritiba BR2
24.07.2019 Coritiba Coritiba 2-0 HT 1-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
09.09.2018 Vila Nova Vila Nova 2-1 HT 2-1 Coritiba Coritiba BR2

Vila Nova 0-3 Coritiba — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vila Nova
0-3
AWAY Coritiba
60% Ball Possession 40%
18 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
334 Passes 218
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
POST-MATCH Vila Nova vs Coritiba
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Coritiba cruised past Vila Nova 3-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Vila Nova at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, no to both teams scoring (60%) landed while under 2.5 goals (64%) missed.

On the day, Vila Nova had 60% of the ball to Coritiba's 40%, shots finished 18-16.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Coritiba led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Vila Nova and 1.33 for Coritiba.

What was the final score of Vila Nova vs Coritiba?

Vila Nova 0-3 Coritiba in the Brazil - Serie B on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vila Nova vs Coritiba?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vila Nova win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Vila Nova 41%, draw 31%, Coritiba 28%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Vila Nova), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Vila Nova) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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