Mirassol FC 1-0 Novorizontino — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 19 Oct 2024

📅19/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.05
Draw
32%
2.94
Away
25%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.44
Over 2.5
34%
2.63
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.29
No
63%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
42%
2.02
2-3 Goals
36%
1.84
4-5 Goals
14%
6.47
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
7%
X/X
16%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
45%
-1.6pp
32%
Draw
30%
+2.2pp
25%
Away Win
25%
-0.5pp
66%
Under 2.5
66%
+0.7pp
34%
Over 2.5
34%
-0.7pp
37%
BTTS Yes
40%
-2.6pp
63%
BTTS No
60%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mirassol FC EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Novorizontino EU Bookmakers 29%
+15% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -10%
1.25/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.11
+5% / +50% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +6%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
317 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 77%
15.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
17.4 Crosses 19.5
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mirassol FC
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Novorizontino
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.00 xG 0.67
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
368 Passes 212
80% Pass Accuracy 70%
13 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
12.08.2023 Novorizontino Novorizontino 2-1 HT 1-1 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC BR2
04.05.2023 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC 0-2 HT 0-1 Novorizontino Novorizontino BR2
31.01.2022 Novorizontino Novorizontino 0-0 HT 0-0 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC BREPAU
25.09.2021 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC 0-1 HT 0-0 Novorizontino Novorizontino BRE3
24.07.2021 Novorizontino Novorizontino 1-0 HT 0-0 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC BRE3
03.03.2021 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC 1-1 HT 1-1 Novorizontino Novorizontino BREPAU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mirassol FC
1-0
AWAY Novorizontino
50% Ball Possession 50%
6 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 4
227 Passes 219
70% Pass Accuracy 68%
POST-MATCH Mirassol FC vs Novorizontino
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mirassol FC squeezed past Novorizontino 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Mirassol FC as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (63%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Mirassol FC had 50% of the ball to Novorizontino's 50%, shots finished 6-15.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Novorizontino led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Mirassol FC and 1.17 for Novorizontino.

What was the final score of Mirassol FC vs Novorizontino?

Mirassol FC 1-0 Novorizontino in the Brazil - Serie B on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mirassol FC vs Novorizontino?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mirassol FC win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Mirassol FC 43%, draw 32%, Novorizontino 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mirassol FC), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Mirassol FC) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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