Queretaro 1-1 Leon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 5 Apr 2025

Queretaro
1-1 HT 1-1
Leon
📅05/04/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Queretaro vs Leon Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.32
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
39%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.86
Over 2.5
47%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.18
2-3 Goals
37%
1.76
4-5 Goals
24%
3.43
6+ Goals
10%
13.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.18 — our 29% vs market 25.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
16%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
27%
+7.8pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.6pp
39%
Away Win
47%
-8.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
50%
+3.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
50%
-3.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.2pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Queretaro v Leon — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Queretaro EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Leon EU Bookmakers 51%
-3% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -24%
1.09/1.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/1.27
-14% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -37%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
254 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 81%
18.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.7
19.6 Crosses 15.1
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.1

Queretaro vs Leon Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Queretaro
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Leon
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.21 xG 1.10
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
218 Passes 350
73% Pass Accuracy 82%
14 Box Touches 22
21 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.10.2024 Leon Leon 4-0 HT 1-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
07.04.2024 Leon Leon 0-2 HT 0-1 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
30.09.2023 Queretaro Queretaro 1-1 HT 0-1 Leon Leon MEK
10.02.2023 Queretaro Queretaro 0-3 HT 0-2 Leon Leon MEK
19.09.2022 Leon Leon 3-1 HT 2-1 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
04.04.2022 Leon Leon 1-1 HT 0-1 Queretaro Queretaro MEK

Queretaro 1-1 Leon — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Queretaro
1-1
AWAY Leon
1.36 xG 1.71
31% Ball Possession 69%
11 Total Shots 19
8 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 5
238 Passes 589
82% Pass Accuracy 91%
15 Box Touches 32
10 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Queretaro vs Leon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Queretaro and Leon shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 27% / 39% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Queretaro had 31% of the ball to Leon's 69%, shots finished 11-19, expected goals 1.36 to 1.71.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leon led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Queretaro and 2.00 for Leon.

What was the final score of Queretaro vs Leon?

Queretaro 1-1 Leon in the Mexico - Primera on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Queretaro vs Leon?

Before kick-off our model rated an Leon win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Queretaro 34%, draw 27%, Leon 39%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Leon), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Leon) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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