Leon 4-0 Queretaro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 27 Oct 2024

Leon
4-0 HT 1-0
Queretaro
📅27/10/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Leon vs Queretaro Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.8
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
28%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.03
Over 2.5
49%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.66
No
49%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.86
2-3 Goals
44%
1.83
4-5 Goals
21%
3.18
6+ Goals
9%
10.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.86 — our 26% vs market 20.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
12%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
52%
-6.0pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.1pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+3.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
45%
+5.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
55%
-5.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.2pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Leon v Queretaro — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leon EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Queretaro EU Bookmakers 27%
-2% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / +19%
1.45/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.40
+2% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -6%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
324 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 76%
25.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
20.9 Crosses 19.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5

Leon vs Queretaro Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leon
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Queretaro
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.11 xG 1.23
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
352 Passes 220
83% Pass Accuracy 74%
23 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
07.04.2024 Leon Leon 0-2 HT 0-1 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
30.09.2023 Queretaro Queretaro 1-1 HT 0-1 Leon Leon MEK
10.02.2023 Queretaro Queretaro 0-3 HT 0-2 Leon Leon MEK
19.09.2022 Leon Leon 3-1 HT 2-1 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
04.04.2022 Leon Leon 1-1 HT 0-1 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
06.08.2021 Queretaro Queretaro 0-1 HT 0-1 Leon Leon MEK

Leon 4-0 Queretaro — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leon
4-0
AWAY Queretaro
0.77 xG 0.69
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
329 Passes 306
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 14
11 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Leon vs Queretaro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leon ran out comfortable winners over Queretaro 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Leon as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Leon had 51% of the ball to Queretaro's 49%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 0.77 to 0.69.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leon had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Leon and 0.83 for Queretaro.

What was the final score of Leon vs Queretaro?

Leon 4-0 Queretaro in the Mexico - Primera on 27/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leon vs Queretaro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leon win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Leon 46%, draw 27%, Queretaro 28%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Leon) — while Under 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Leon) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MEK More Mexico - Primera
27 Oct 2024
05:00 Pumas UNAM vs Cruz Azul Analysis →
06:00 Tigres UANL vs Pachuca Analysis →
06:05 Atlas vs Tijuana Analysis →