Felgueiras 1932 1-0 Penafiel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.9
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
29%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.71
Over 2.5
45%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.88
No
54%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
2.75
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
3.92
6+ Goals
9%
18.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.75 — our 31% vs market 29.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
13%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
49%
-3.8pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.4pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+4.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
55%
+0.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
45%
-0.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.0pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Felgueiras 1932 EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Penafiel EU Bookmakers 28%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +26%
1.05/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.36
-40% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -2%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
270 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 229 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
9.9 Crosses 17.1
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Felgueiras 1932
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Penafiel
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.82 xG 1.46
56% Ball Possession 44%
0 Total Shots 6
0 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
97 Passes 142
74% Pass Accuracy 69%
5 Crosses 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
09.11.2024 Penafiel Penafiel 2-1 HT 0-1 Felgueiras 1932 Felgueiras 1932 POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Felgueiras 1932
1-0
AWAY Penafiel
0.87 xG 0.28
61% Ball Possession 39%
8 Total Shots 2
1 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 2
96 Passes 131
84% Pass Accuracy 68%
11 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Felgueiras 1932 vs Penafiel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Felgueiras 1932 squeezed past Penafiel 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Felgueiras 1932 as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Felgueiras 1932 had 61% of the ball to Penafiel's 39%, shots finished 8-2, expected goals 0.87 to 0.28.

What was the final score of Felgueiras 1932 vs Penafiel?

Felgueiras 1932 1-0 Penafiel in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Felgueiras 1932 vs Penafiel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Felgueiras 1932 win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Felgueiras 1932 45%, draw 26%, Penafiel 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Felgueiras 1932), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Felgueiras 1932) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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