Lokomotiv Moscow 1-1 Zenit St. Petersburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 5 Apr 2025

Lokomotiv Moscow
1-1 HT 0-0
Zenit St. Petersburg
📅05/04/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Russia - Premier League – 2024/2025

Lokomotiv Moscow vs Zenit St. Petersburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.69
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
48%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.91
Over 2.5
51%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.75
No
53%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.5
2-3 Goals
40%
1.85
4-5 Goals
21%
3.56
6+ Goals
10%
13.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.5 — our 29% vs market 24.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
6.49
1/2
6%
23.75
1/X
7%
15.15
X/1
12%
8.38
X/2
14%
4.44
X/X
10%
5.08
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
27%
2.46
2/X
7%
13.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
24%
+5.3pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.0pp
48%
Away Win
51%
-3.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.0pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lokomotiv Moscow v Zenit St. Petersburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Zenit St. Petersburg EU Bookmakers 55%
+18% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -5%
1.18/1.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.70/0.85
+27% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +18%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
252 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 78%
15.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.2
13.4 Crosses 18.8
2.8 Yellow Cards 1.4

Lokomotiv Moscow vs Zenit St. Petersburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Zenit St. Petersburg
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.85 xG 1.85
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
238 Passes 451
72% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 37
11 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.10.2024 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 1-1 HT 0-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
03.12.2023 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 3-1 HT 1-1 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg RUS
24.09.2023 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 1-2 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
09.04.2023 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 1-2 HT 1-1 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg RUS
30.07.2022 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 5-0 HT 0-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
30.04.2022 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 3-1 HT 2-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS

Lokomotiv Moscow 1-1 Zenit St. Petersburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow
1-1
AWAY Zenit St. Petersburg
0.50 xG 1.53
30% Ball Possession 70%
6 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 5
194 Passes 539
75% Pass Accuracy 88%
9 Box Touches 27
9 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lokomotiv Moscow vs Zenit St. Petersburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Moscow and Zenit St. Petersburg shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Zenit St. Petersburg at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Lokomotiv Moscow had 30% of the ball to Zenit St. Petersburg's 70%, shots finished 6-10, expected goals 0.50 to 1.53.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Zenit St. Petersburg led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Lokomotiv Moscow and 2.17 for Zenit St. Petersburg.

What was the final score of Lokomotiv Moscow vs Zenit St. Petersburg?

Lokomotiv Moscow 1-1 Zenit St. Petersburg in the Russia - Premier League on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiv Moscow vs Zenit St. Petersburg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Zenit St. Petersburg win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiv Moscow 29%, draw 23%, Zenit St. Petersburg 48%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Zenit St. Petersburg) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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