Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 Erzurumspor FK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.09
Draw
25%
3.04
Away
33%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.52
Over 2.5
42%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.09
No
58%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.35
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
19%
5.45
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.14
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
5%
14.7
X/1
17%
4.57
X/2
5%
6.78
X/X
15%
3.83
2/1
7%
32.0
2/2 EV+ ✗
23%
5.71
2/X
5%
15.5
Value flag · 2/2 at 5.71 — our 23% vs market 13.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
44%
-2.0pp
25%
Draw
29%
-4.8pp
33%
Away Win
27%
+6.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
62%
-3.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
38%
+3.4pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.0pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fatih Karagümrük EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Erzurumspor FK EU Bookmakers 30%
-4% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +9%
1.22/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.22
-12% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +15%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
262 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 78%
19.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
19.6 Crosses 16.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fatih Karagümrük
3W-1D-1L
AWAY Erzurumspor FK
2.60 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
1.58 xG 1.35
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
302 Passes 302
77% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
24.11.2024 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 1-3 HT 0-2 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük T1L
03.03.2021 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 2-2 HT 1-1 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
30.10.2020 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 5-1 HT 3-0 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK TSL
10.03.2020 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 1-3 HT 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük T1L
03.11.2019 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 0-1 HT 0-0 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fatih Karagümrük
1-0
AWAY Erzurumspor FK
1.02 xG 0.13
60% Ball Possession 40%
11 Total Shots 4
2 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 1
282 Passes 163
77% Pass Accuracy 65%
24 Box Touches 4
30 Crosses 5
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Fatih Karagümrük vs Erzurumspor FK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fatih Karagümrük squeezed past Erzurumspor FK 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Fatih Karagümrük as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (58%) came in.

On the day, Fatih Karagümrük had 60% of the ball to Erzurumspor FK's 40%, shots finished 11-4, expected goals 1.02 to 0.13.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Fatih Karagümrük had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.60 goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.20 for Erzurumspor FK.

What was the final score of Fatih Karagümrük vs Erzurumspor FK?

Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 Erzurumspor FK in the Turkey - 1st Division on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fatih Karagümrük vs Erzurumspor FK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fatih Karagümrük win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Fatih Karagümrük 42%, draw 25%, Erzurumspor FK 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fatih Karagümrük), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fatih Karagümrük) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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