Manisa FK 1-2 Keçiörengücü — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.46
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
38%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.9
Over 2.5
43%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.68
No
54%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.43
2-3 Goals
38%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
3.62
6+ Goals
8%
14.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.43 — our 32% vs market 24.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.73
1/2
6%
29.0
1/X
6%
12.6
X/1
13%
5.79
X/2
10%
6.01
X/X
18%
4.58
2/1
4%
28.0
2/2
23%
3.95
2/X
6%
12.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
37%
-5.4pp
30%
Draw
28%
+1.7pp
38%
Away Win
35%
+3.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
49%
+8.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
51%
-8.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.2pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Manisa FK EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Keçiörengücü EU Bookmakers 38%
-5% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +13%
1.29/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.11
-28% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +28%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
330 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 77%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
16.3 Crosses 15.2
2.8 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Manisa FK
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Keçiörengücü
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.92 xG 0.88
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
275 Passes 355
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 18
14 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.11.2024 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü 4-0 HT 1-0 Manisa FK Manisa FK T1L
21.01.2024 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü 1-1 HT 1-1 Manisa FK Manisa FK T1L
20.08.2023 Manisa FK Manisa FK 0-0 HT 0-0 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü T1L
29.04.2023 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü 0-3 HT 0-1 Manisa FK Manisa FK T1L
04.12.2022 Manisa FK Manisa FK 0-0 HT 0-0 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü T1L
08.05.2022 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü 2-1 HT 1-1 Manisa FK Manisa FK T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Manisa FK
1-2
AWAY Keçiörengücü
0.96 xG 2.52
67% Ball Possession 33%
9 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 7
8 Corners 5
588 Passes 264
89% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 22
21 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Manisa FK vs Keçiörengücü
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Keçiörengücü nicked a narrow win over Manisa FK 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 30% / 38% — and on the day Keçiörengücü made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Manisa FK had 67% of the ball to Keçiörengücü's 33%, shots finished 9-15, expected goals 0.96 to 2.52 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Keçiörengücü's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Keçiörengücü led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Manisa FK and 1.17 for Keçiörengücü.

What was the final score of Manisa FK vs Keçiörengücü?

Manisa FK 1-2 Keçiörengücü in the Turkey - 1st Division on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Manisa FK vs Keçiörengücü?

Before kick-off our model rated an Keçiörengücü win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Manisa FK 32%, draw 30%, Keçiörengücü 38%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Keçiörengücü) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Keçiörengücü) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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