Arenteiro 1-3 Lugo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 5 May 2024

📅05/05/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.25
Draw
32%
2.94
Away
27%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.51
Over 2.5
35%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.09
No
58%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2.25
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
15%
5.47
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
10%
X/X
17%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
41%
+0.6pp
32%
Draw
30%
+1.9pp
26%
Away Win
29%
-2.4pp
65%
Under 2.5
62%
+2.5pp
35%
Over 2.5
38%
-2.5pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-1.6pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arenteiro EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Lugo EU Bookmakers 32%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
1.38/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/0.67
+11% / +37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +66%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
299 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 223 · 67%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
22.0 Crosses
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arenteiro
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Lugo
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 4
25.11.2023 Lugo Lugo 0-1 HT 0-0 Arenteiro Arenteiro İS3
POST-MATCH Arenteiro vs Lugo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lugo got the better of Arenteiro 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Arenteiro at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

What was the final score of Arenteiro vs Lugo?

Arenteiro 1-3 Lugo in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arenteiro vs Lugo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arenteiro win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Arenteiro 41%, draw 32%, Lugo 26%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Arenteiro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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