Phoenix Rising 1-1 Sacramento Republic — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 5 May 2024

📅05/05/2024 · 🕒05:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.99
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
45%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.82
Over 2.5
46%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.73
No
54%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.24
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
16%
3.64
6+ Goals
10%
14.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.24 — our 31% vs market 25.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
9%
1/X
13%
X/1
12%
X/2
15%
X/X
7%
2/1
8%
2/2
21%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
30%
+0.9pp
24%
Draw
28%
-4.2pp
46%
Away Win
42%
+3.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
54%
-8.1pp
54%
BTTS No
46%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Phoenix Rising EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Sacramento Republic EU Bookmakers 46%
-20% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +14%
1.89/1.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/0.97
+18% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +108%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
257 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 371 · 79%
13.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.9
10.8 Crosses 15.7
3.4 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Phoenix Rising
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Sacramento Republic
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.31 xG 0.98
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
410 Passes 268
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Box Touches 13
17 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 2
05.11.2023 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 1-2 HT 1-0 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
31.08.2023 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 2-1 HT 0-0 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP
27.07.2023 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 4-0 HT 4-0 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
29.09.2022 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 0-1 HT 0-1 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
24.07.2022 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 0-0 HT 0-0 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP
12.05.2022 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 2-0 HT 1-0 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising ABDK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Phoenix Rising
1-1
AWAY Sacramento Republic
1.40 xG 0.33
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
415 Passes 354
87% Pass Accuracy 83%
9 Box Touches 15
14 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Phoenix Rising vs Sacramento Republic
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Phoenix Rising and Sacramento Republic couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Sacramento Republic at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Phoenix Rising had 53% of the ball to Sacramento Republic's 47%, shots finished 9-7, expected goals 1.40 to 0.33.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Phoenix Rising had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Phoenix Rising and 1.33 for Sacramento Republic.

What was the final score of Phoenix Rising vs Sacramento Republic?

Phoenix Rising 1-1 Sacramento Republic in the USL Championship on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Phoenix Rising vs Sacramento Republic?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sacramento Republic win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Phoenix Rising 31%, draw 24%, Sacramento Republic 46%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Sacramento Republic), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sacramento Republic) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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