Yelimay Semey 2-3 Tobol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kazakistan - Super League, 5 Jul 2025

📅05/07/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.19
Draw
38%
3.11
Away
30%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.64
Over 2.5
47%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
30%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
8%
X/2
13%
X/X
20%
2/1
11%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
42%
-10.3pp
38%
Draw
29%
+9.1pp
30%
Away Win
29%
+1.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
57%
-4.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
43%
+4.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.6pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Yelimay Semey EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Tobol EU Bookmakers 32%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -6%
0.52/0.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/0.91
-60% / +112% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +26%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
322 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 235 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Yelimay Semey
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Tobol
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
30.03.2025 Tobol Tobol 1-1 HT 1-0 Yelimay Semey Yelimay Semey KAZP
15.09.2024 Yelimay Semey Yelimay Semey 2-1 HT 1-0 Tobol Tobol KAZP
06.03.2024 Tobol Tobol 4-2 HT 2-1 Yelimay Semey Yelimay Semey KAZP
POST-MATCH Yelimay Semey vs Tobol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tobol edged past Yelimay Semey 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (32% / 38% / 30%) promised a tight game; Tobol found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Yelimay Semey and 2.00 for Tobol.

What was the final score of Yelimay Semey vs Tobol?

Yelimay Semey 2-3 Tobol in the Kazakistan - Super League on 05/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Yelimay Semey vs Tobol?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Yelimay Semey 32%, draw 38%, Tobol 30%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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