Phoenix Rising vs Lexington Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Phoenix Rising v Lexington — Team-Based Signals
Phoenix Rising 0-1 Lexington — Actual Match Statistics
Lexington edged past Phoenix Rising 1-0 away from home.
Our pre-match lean was Phoenix Rising at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
On the day, Phoenix Rising had 53% of the ball to Lexington's 47%, shots finished 8-8, expected goals 0.39 to 0.66.
What was the final score of Phoenix Rising vs Lexington?
Phoenix Rising 0-1 Lexington in the USL Championship on 05/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Phoenix Rising vs Lexington?
Before kick-off our model rated a Phoenix Rising win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Phoenix Rising 46%, draw 25%, Lexington 29%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.