El Paso Locomotive 1-2 San Antonio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 5 Jul 2025

📅05/07/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.92
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
25%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.78
Over 2.5
48%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.16
2-3 Goals
42%
1.76
4-5 Goals
22%
3.44
6+ Goals
10%
13.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 26% vs market 25.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
18%
X/2
9%
X/X
18%
2/1
9%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
48%
-1.0pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.4pp
25%
Away Win
26%
-0.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.4pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME El Paso Locomotive EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY San Antonio EU Bookmakers 29%
-4% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +0%
1.36/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.31
-3% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +8%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
376 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 75%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
17.6 Crosses 17.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME El Paso Locomotive
1W-2D-3L
AWAY San Antonio
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.83 xG 1.01
63% Ball Possession 37%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
293 Passes 138
76% Pass Accuracy 62%
18 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
10.10.2024 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 2-2 HT 0-0 San Antonio San Antonio USLP
06.06.2024 San Antonio San Antonio 0-1 HT 0-0 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
13.07.2023 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 1-2 HT 1-0 San Antonio San Antonio USLP
11.06.2023 San Antonio San Antonio 2-2 HT 1-1 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
24.07.2022 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 0-1 HT 0-0 San Antonio San Antonio USLP
17.04.2022 San Antonio San Antonio 1-0 HT 1-0 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME El Paso Locomotive
1-2
AWAY San Antonio
1.79 xG 0.64
62% Ball Possession 38%
10 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
375 Passes 191
88% Pass Accuracy 73%
14 Box Touches 12
17 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 7
POST-MATCH El Paso Locomotive vs San Antonio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

San Antonio squeezed past El Paso Locomotive 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was El Paso Locomotive at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, El Paso Locomotive had 62% of the ball to San Antonio's 38%, shots finished 10-9, expected goals 1.79 to 0.64 — the balance of chances actually favoured El Paso Locomotive.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, San Antonio led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for El Paso Locomotive and 1.33 for San Antonio.

What was the final score of El Paso Locomotive vs San Antonio?

El Paso Locomotive 1-2 San Antonio in the USL Championship on 05/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for El Paso Locomotive vs San Antonio?

Before kick-off our model rated a El Paso Locomotive win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split El Paso Locomotive 47%, draw 28%, San Antonio 25%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (El Paso Locomotive) ✗ Under 2.5
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