Las Vegas Lights 0-2 Sacramento Republic — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 5 Jul 2025

📅05/07/2025 · 🕒05:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.17
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
40%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.71
Over 2.5
44%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.88
No
55%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.62
2-3 Goals
39%
1.73
4-5 Goals
18%
4.1
6+ Goals
9%
20.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.62 — our 34% vs market 30.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
9%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
13%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
28%
+4.9pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.8pp
40%
Away Win
44%
-4.1pp
56%
Under 2.5
55%
+1.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
45%
-1.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.9pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Las Vegas Lights EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Sacramento Republic EU Bookmakers 48%
+1% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +1%
1.16/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.32
+8% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +43%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
265 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 363 · 80%
17.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.4
15.2 Crosses 17.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Las Vegas Lights
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Sacramento Republic
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.83 xG 1.41
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
412 Passes 321
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
17 Box Touches 25
15 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.06.2025 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 4-0 HT 2-0 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLKP
18.05.2025 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 5-0 HT 3-0 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
02.11.2024 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 0-0 HT 0-0 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP
22.09.2024 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 2-1 HT 1-1 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP
04.07.2024 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 0-1 HT 0-1 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
02.10.2023 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 2-0 HT 0-0 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Las Vegas Lights
0-2
AWAY Sacramento Republic
0.24 xG 1.28
47% Ball Possession 53%
6 Total Shots 20
0 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 6
293 Passes 340
85% Pass Accuracy 88%
9 Box Touches 36
9 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Las Vegas Lights vs Sacramento Republic
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sacramento Republic got the better of Las Vegas Lights 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (33% / 27% / 40%) promised a tight game; Sacramento Republic found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Las Vegas Lights had 47% of the ball to Sacramento Republic's 53%, shots finished 6-20, expected goals 0.24 to 1.28.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sacramento Republic led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Las Vegas Lights and 2.00 for Sacramento Republic.

What was the final score of Las Vegas Lights vs Sacramento Republic?

Las Vegas Lights 0-2 Sacramento Republic in the USL Championship on 05/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Las Vegas Lights vs Sacramento Republic?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sacramento Republic win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Las Vegas Lights 33%, draw 27%, Sacramento Republic 40%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sacramento Republic), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sacramento Republic) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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