Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1-0 New Mexico United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 5 Jul 2025

📅05/07/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.86
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
34%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.62
Over 2.5
36%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
1.99
No
62%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
38%
2.53
2-3 Goals
40%
1.73
4-5 Goals
15%
4.29
6+ Goals
7%
22.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.53 — our 38% vs market 32.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
3%
1/X
10%
X/1
17%
X/2
15%
X/X
7%
2/1
5%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
50%
-7.6pp
24%
Draw
28%
-3.6pp
34%
Away Win
23%
+11.2pp
64%
Under 2.5
58%
+6.3pp
36%
Over 2.5
42%
-6.3pp
38%
BTTS Yes
46%
-8.0pp
62%
BTTS No
54%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pittsburgh Riverhounds EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY New Mexico United EU Bookmakers 26%
+5% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +12%
1.45/0.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.54
-1% / +58% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +3%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
363 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 78%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
21.2 Crosses 12.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1W-1D-1L
AWAY New Mexico United
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.64 xG 1.54
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
211 Passes 405
70% Pass Accuracy 81%
21 Box Touches 14
18 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 4
10.03.2024 New Mexico United New Mexico United 1-0 HT 1-0 Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pittsburgh Riverhounds USLP
24.09.2023 Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2-1 HT 2-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
17.07.2022 New Mexico United New Mexico United 1-1 HT 1-0 Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pittsburgh Riverhounds USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1-0
AWAY New Mexico United
2.44 xG 0.19
30% Ball Possession 70%
19 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 8
196 Passes 567
74% Pass Accuracy 87%
39 Box Touches 15
22 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs New Mexico United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pittsburgh Riverhounds edged past New Mexico United 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Pittsburgh Riverhounds as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (62%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Pittsburgh Riverhounds had 30% of the ball to New Mexico United's 70%, shots finished 19-6, expected goals 2.44 to 0.19 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Pittsburgh Riverhounds's control.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Pittsburgh Riverhounds and 1.00 for New Mexico United.

What was the final score of Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs New Mexico United?

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1-0 New Mexico United in the USL Championship on 05/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs New Mexico United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pittsburgh Riverhounds win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Pittsburgh Riverhounds 42%, draw 24%, New Mexico United 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pittsburgh Riverhounds), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Pittsburgh Riverhounds) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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