New Mexico United 1-0 Pittsburgh Riverhounds — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 10 Mar 2024

📅10/03/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.25
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
37%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.82
Over 2.5
40%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.73
No
55%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
3.22
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.65
6+ Goals
8%
15.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.22 — our 31% vs market 25.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
13%
X/X
16%
2/1
8%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
41%
-7.9pp
30%
Draw
27%
+3.6pp
37%
Away Win
32%
+4.3pp
60%
Under 2.5
51%
+8.8pp
40%
Over 2.5
49%
-8.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
54%
-8.9pp
55%
BTTS No
46%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New Mexico United EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Pittsburgh Riverhounds EU Bookmakers 36%
+0% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.33/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.25
+21% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +16%
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
361 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 77%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.8
16.1 Crosses 17.4
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New Mexico United
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.00 xG 1.13
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
333 Passes 212
76% Pass Accuracy 68%
19 Box Touches 26
13 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
24.09.2023 Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2-1 HT 2-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
17.07.2022 New Mexico United New Mexico United 1-1 HT 1-0 Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pittsburgh Riverhounds USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New Mexico United
1-0
AWAY Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1.09 xG 0.16
66% Ball Possession 34%
5 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 8
549 Passes 211
86% Pass Accuracy 71%
9 Box Touches 16
11 Crosses 24
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH New Mexico United vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New Mexico United nicked a narrow win over Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 30% / 37% — and on the day New Mexico United made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, New Mexico United had 66% of the ball to Pittsburgh Riverhounds's 34%, shots finished 5-5, expected goals 1.09 to 0.16.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Pittsburgh Riverhounds led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for New Mexico United and 1.50 for Pittsburgh Riverhounds.

What was the final score of New Mexico United vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds?

New Mexico United 1-0 Pittsburgh Riverhounds in the USL Championship on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New Mexico United vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds?

Before kick-off our model rated an Pittsburgh Riverhounds win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split New Mexico United 33%, draw 30%, Pittsburgh Riverhounds 37%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Pittsburgh Riverhounds) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Pittsburgh Riverhounds) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
USLP More USL Championship
10 Mar 2024
00:00 Memphis 901 vs Las Vegas Lights Analysis →
03:00 North Carolina vs Charleston Battery Analysis →
03:00 Miami FC vs Colorado Springs Analysis →
04:30 San Antonio vs Loudoun United Analysis →
05:00 El Paso Locomotive vs Hartford Athletic Analysis →
05:30 Phoenix Rising vs Birmingham Legion Analysis →