Phoenix Rising 0-1 Birmingham Legion — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 10 Mar 2024

📅10/03/2024 · 🕒05:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.96
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
28%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.0
Over 2.5
49%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.63
No
48%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.81
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals
19%
3.22
6+ Goals
13%
11.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.81 — our 27% vs market 21.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
47%
-0.0pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.4pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+1.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
46%
+4.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
54%
-4.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.2pp
48%
BTTS No
43%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Phoenix Rising EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Birmingham Legion EU Bookmakers 30%
-2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -11%
1.61/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.38
+55% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
337 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 77%
19.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.7
15.2 Crosses 14.8
3.2 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Phoenix Rising
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Birmingham Legion
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.55 xG 0.94
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
364 Passes 284
83% Pass Accuracy 76%
21 Box Touches 24
22 Crosses 18
6 Yellow Cards 2
10.04.2023 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion 1-2 HT 0-0 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
05.06.2022 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 0-1 HT 0-0 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Phoenix Rising
0-1
AWAY Birmingham Legion
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 11
6 Corners 1
POST-MATCH Phoenix Rising vs Birmingham Legion
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Birmingham Legion edged past Phoenix Rising 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Phoenix Rising at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Phoenix Rising had 54% of the ball to Birmingham Legion's 46%, shots finished 18-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Phoenix Rising and 1.00 for Birmingham Legion.

What was the final score of Phoenix Rising vs Birmingham Legion?

Phoenix Rising 0-1 Birmingham Legion in the USL Championship on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Phoenix Rising vs Birmingham Legion?

Before kick-off our model rated a Phoenix Rising win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Phoenix Rising 47%, draw 25%, Birmingham Legion 28%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Phoenix Rising), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Phoenix Rising) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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