El Paso Locomotive 0-1 Hartford Athletic — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 10 Mar 2024

📅10/03/2024 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.89
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
31%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.18
Over 2.5
44%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.6
No
54%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
4.31
2-3 Goals
38%
1.88
4-5 Goals
22%
2.98
6+ Goals
9%
9.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.31 — our 31% vs market 18.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
49%
-5.5pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.1pp
31%
Away Win
27%
+4.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
42%
+13.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
58%
-13.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
58%
-12.1pp
54%
BTTS No
42%
+12.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME El Paso Locomotive EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Hartford Athletic EU Bookmakers 30%
+2% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -7%
1.46/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.83
+0% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / -20%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
379 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 77%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
19.5 Crosses 16.5
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME El Paso Locomotive
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Hartford Athletic
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.18 xG 1.12
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
375 Passes 342
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
25 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
27.08.2023 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic 0-2 HT 0-1 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
05.06.2022 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 1-1 HT 0-0 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME El Paso Locomotive
0-1
AWAY Hartford Athletic
1.27 xG 2.15
64% Ball Possession 36%
15 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 3
417 Passes 191
82% Pass Accuracy 68%
26 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH El Paso Locomotive vs Hartford Athletic
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hartford Athletic squeezed past El Paso Locomotive 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was El Paso Locomotive at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, El Paso Locomotive had 64% of the ball to Hartford Athletic's 36%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 1.27 to 2.15.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, El Paso Locomotive had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for El Paso Locomotive and 0.50 for Hartford Athletic.

What was the final score of El Paso Locomotive vs Hartford Athletic?

El Paso Locomotive 0-1 Hartford Athletic in the USL Championship on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for El Paso Locomotive vs Hartford Athletic?

Before kick-off our model rated a El Paso Locomotive win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split El Paso Locomotive 44%, draw 25%, Hartford Athletic 31%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (El Paso Locomotive) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (El Paso Locomotive) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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