Tampa Bay Rowdies 1-4 Lexington — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 5 Jul 2026

📅05/07/2026 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
19%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.03
Over 2.5
45%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.75
No
46%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.57
2-3 Goals
44%
1.76
4-5 Goals
20%
3.04
6+ Goals
8%
10.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.57 — our 28% vs market 21.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
39%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
8%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
7%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
57%
-2.1pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.6pp
19%
Away Win
20%
-0.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
45%
+9.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
55%
-9.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.6pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Lexington EU Bookmakers 22%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.57/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.52
+13% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -1%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
332 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 75%
24.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
20.3 Crosses 10.7
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Lexington
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.60 xG 1.08
54% Ball Possession 46%
8 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 8
463 Passes 359
88% Pass Accuracy 84%
10 Box Touches 30
10 Crosses 21
0 Yellow Cards 2
25.05.2025 Lexington Lexington 1-1 HT 1-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies
1-4
AWAY Lexington
3.23 xG 1.22
27 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 5
12 Corners 2
428 Passes 335
34 Box Touches 13
34 Crosses 4
3 Yellow Cards 0
FAQ Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Lexington
Match summary & frequently asked questions

Lexington ran out comfortable winners over Tampa Bay Rowdies 4-1 away from home in the USL Championship on 5 Jul 2026. Half-time: 0-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 45% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, shots finished 27-7, expected goals 3.23 to 1.22.

What was the final score of Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Lexington?

Tampa Bay Rowdies 1-4 Lexington in the USL Championship on 05/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Lexington?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tampa Bay Rowdies win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Tampa Bay Rowdies 55%, draw 26%, Lexington 19%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Tampa Bay Rowdies), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tampa Bay Rowdies) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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