Lexington 1-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 25 May 2025

📅25/05/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.27
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
34%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.91
Over 2.5
51%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.68
No
47%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
15%
2/1
9%
2/2
15%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
40%
-4.4pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.7pp
34%
Away Win
34%
+0.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.2pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lexington EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Tampa Bay Rowdies EU Bookmakers 37%
-18% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -16%
1.25/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.29
-10% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / -6%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
358 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 78%
19.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
18.7 Crosses 18.5
2.8 Yellow Cards 1.8
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lexington
1-1
AWAY Tampa Bay Rowdies
1.08 xG 1.60
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 2
359 Passes 463
84% Pass Accuracy 88%
30 Box Touches 10
21 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Lexington vs Tampa Bay Rowdies
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lexington and Tampa Bay Rowdies couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 30% / 34% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Lexington had 46% of the ball to Tampa Bay Rowdies's 54%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 1.08 to 1.60.

What was the final score of Lexington vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?

Lexington 1-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies in the USL Championship on 25/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lexington vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lexington win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Lexington 36%, draw 30%, Tampa Bay Rowdies 34%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lexington), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lexington) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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