Monterey Bay 0-2 Louisville City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 25 May 2025

📅25/05/2025 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
3.75
Draw
32%
3.35
Away
47%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.75
Over 2.5
46%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.88
No
52%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.82
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
3.8
6+ Goals
7%
17.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.82 — our 31% vs market 28.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
7%
X/2
20%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
22%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
23%
-1.9pp
32%
Draw
26%
+6.0pp
46%
Away Win
50%
-4.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
53%
+0.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
47%
-0.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.9pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monterey Bay EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Louisville City EU Bookmakers 55%
-6% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +3%
1.19/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.62/0.92
+3% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +0%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
272 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 367 · 79%
16.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.4
16.3 Crosses 23.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monterey Bay
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Louisville City
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.48 xG 0.89
43% Ball Possession 57%
6 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
284 Passes 395
73% Pass Accuracy 80%
13 Box Touches 23
12 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.07.2024 Louisville City Louisville City 4-1 HT 3-1 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
19.03.2023 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 0-1 HT 0-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
22.05.2022 Louisville City Louisville City 0-2 HT 0-0 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monterey Bay
0-2
AWAY Louisville City
0.38 xG 1.51
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 10
1 Corners 13
268 Passes 239
71% Pass Accuracy 68%
13 Box Touches 34
12 Crosses 32
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Monterey Bay vs Louisville City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Louisville City got the better of Monterey Bay 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Louisville City as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Monterey Bay had 50% of the ball to Louisville City's 50%, shots finished 9-17, expected goals 0.38 to 1.51.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Louisville City led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Monterey Bay and 1.67 for Louisville City.

What was the final score of Monterey Bay vs Louisville City?

Monterey Bay 0-2 Louisville City in the USL Championship on 25/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monterey Bay vs Louisville City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Louisville City win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Monterey Bay 21%, draw 32%, Louisville City 46%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Louisville City), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Louisville City) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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