Louisville City 4-1 Monterey Bay — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 28 Jul 2024

📅28/07/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.32
Draw
20%
4.81
Away
22%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.38
Over 2.5
58%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.85
No
49%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
4.91
2-3 Goals
41%
1.94
4-5 Goals
26%
2.79
6+ Goals
14%
7.43
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
7%
2/1
9%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
71%
-12.9pp
20%
Draw
18%
+2.2pp
22%
Away Win
11%
+10.7pp
42%
Under 2.5
38%
+4.1pp
58%
Over 2.5
62%
-4.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
50%
+0.8pp
49%
BTTS No
50%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Louisville City EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Monterey Bay EU Bookmakers 14%
-2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +13%
2.16/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.61
+22% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +13%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
356 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 77%
28.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.6
22.1 Crosses 16.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Louisville City
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Monterey Bay
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.61 xG 0.55
60% Ball Possession 40%
10 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
424 Passes 256
80% Pass Accuracy 70%
22 Box Touches 11
24 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 2
19.03.2023 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 0-1 HT 0-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
22.05.2022 Louisville City Louisville City 0-2 HT 0-0 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Louisville City
4-1
AWAY Monterey Bay
1.44 xG 0.34
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 1
337 Passes 341
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
25 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Louisville City vs Monterey Bay
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Louisville City swept aside Monterey Bay 4-1. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Louisville City as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Louisville City had 50% of the ball to Monterey Bay's 50%, shots finished 16-7, expected goals 1.44 to 0.34.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Louisville City and 1.00 for Monterey Bay.

What was the final score of Louisville City vs Monterey Bay?

Louisville City 4-1 Monterey Bay in the USL Championship on 28/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Louisville City vs Monterey Bay?

Before kick-off our model rated a Louisville City win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Louisville City 58%, draw 20%, Monterey Bay 22%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Louisville City), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Louisville City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
USLP More USL Championship
28 Jul 2024
02:00 Detroit City vs Sacramento Republic Analysis →
02:00 Miami FC vs Oakland Roots Analysis →
02:00 Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Loudoun United Analysis →
02:30 Birmingham Legion vs Orange County SC Analysis →
02:30 Rhode Island vs North Carolina Analysis →
02:30 Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Charleston Battery Analysis →