Pontypridd Town AFC 3-1 Carmarthen Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 5 Sep 2025

📅05/09/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 0-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.5
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
52%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.07
Over 2.5
56%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
9%
1/X
4%
X/1
9%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
32%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
25%
+0.4pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.1pp
52%
Away Win
52%
-0.2pp
44%
Under 2.5
44%
-0.0pp
56%
Over 2.5
56%
+0.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.3pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pontypridd Town AFC EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Carmarthen Town EU Bookmakers 56%
-38% / -38% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -9%
1.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.08/1.12
-33% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +12%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
308 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 413 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pontypridd Town AFC
3W-0D-1L
AWAY Carmarthen Town
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
07.03.2025 Pontypridd Town AFC Pontypridd Town AFC 1-3 HT 1-0 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town GALFAW
09.11.2024 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town 0-1 HT 0-1 Pontypridd Town AFC Pontypridd Town AFC GALFAW
06.08.2022 Pontypridd Town AFC Pontypridd Town AFC 2-0 HT 2-0 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town GALLK
30.04.2022 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town 0-2 HT 0-2 Pontypridd Town AFC Pontypridd Town AFC GALFAW
POST-MATCH Pontypridd Town AFC vs Carmarthen Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pontypridd Town AFC saw off Carmarthen Town 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match lean was Carmarthen Town at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Pontypridd Town AFC had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Pontypridd Town AFC and 0.75 for Carmarthen Town.

What was the final score of Pontypridd Town AFC vs Carmarthen Town?

Pontypridd Town AFC 3-1 Carmarthen Town in the Wales - FAW Championship on 05/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pontypridd Town AFC vs Carmarthen Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Carmarthen Town win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Pontypridd Town AFC 25%, draw 23%, Carmarthen Town 52%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Carmarthen Town) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Carmarthen Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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