Pontypridd Town AFC 1-3 Carmarthen Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 7 Mar 2025

Pontypridd Town AFC
1-3 HT 1-0
Carmarthen Town
📅07/03/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Wales - FAW Championship – 2024/2025

Pontypridd Town AFC vs Carmarthen Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.72
Draw
15%
3.72
Away
29%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
34%
2.1
Over 2.5
66%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.68
No
43%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
30%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
9%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
6%
X/X
6%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
54%
+1.6pp
15%
Draw
24%
-8.6pp
29%
Away Win
22%
+7.0pp
34%
Under 2.5
44%
-10.1pp
66%
Over 2.5
56%
+10.1pp
57%
BTTS Yes
56%
+1.4pp
43%
BTTS No
44%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Pontypridd Town AFC v Carmarthen Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pontypridd Town AFC EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Carmarthen Town EU Bookmakers 25%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
1.73/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.63/1.49
-20% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -52% / +41%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
338 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 207 · 74%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Pontypridd Town AFC vs Carmarthen Town Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pontypridd Town AFC
3W-0D-0L
AWAY Carmarthen Town
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
The Meetings
09.11.2024 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town 0-1 HT 0-1 Pontypridd Town AFC Pontypridd Town AFC GALFAW
06.08.2022 Pontypridd Town AFC Pontypridd Town AFC 2-0 HT 2-0 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town GALLK
30.04.2022 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town 0-2 HT 0-2 Pontypridd Town AFC Pontypridd Town AFC GALFAW
POST-MATCH Pontypridd Town AFC vs Carmarthen Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Carmarthen Town got the better of Pontypridd Town AFC 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

This one beat our numbers. Pontypridd Town AFC carried 56% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (66%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Pontypridd Town AFC had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Pontypridd Town AFC and 0.00 for Carmarthen Town.

What was the final score of Pontypridd Town AFC vs Carmarthen Town?

Pontypridd Town AFC 1-3 Carmarthen Town in the Wales - FAW Championship on 07/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pontypridd Town AFC vs Carmarthen Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pontypridd Town AFC win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Pontypridd Town AFC 56%, draw 15%, Carmarthen Town 29%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Pontypridd Town AFC) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Pontypridd Town AFC) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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