Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid Prediction, Probabilities & Odds — Spain - Primera Liga, 5 Sep 2026

📅05/09/2026 · 🕒17:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
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MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.67
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
39%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
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H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Athletic Bilbao
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Atletico Madrid
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.03 xG 1.44
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
392 Passes 416
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 18
23 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
25.04.2026 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 3-2 HT 0-1 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
06.12.2025 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
01.03.2025 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 1-0 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
31.08.2024 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
27.04.2024 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 3-1 HT 1-1 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
29.02.2024 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 3-0 HT 2-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İSPK
PREVIEW Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid
IDDAAKOLIK MATCH PREVIEW

Our model can't split Athletic Bilbao and Atletico Madrid in any meaningful way; small margins will decide it.

Atletico Madrid's recent away league games have rarely been one-way — both sides scored in 4 of the last 5.

Across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Madrid lead the recent series with 4 wins. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.17 a game for Athletic Bilbao against 1.33 for Atletico Madrid.

Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid Kick-off Time

Athletic Bilbao play Atletico Madrid in the Spain - Primera Liga on 05/09/2026, kick-off 17:15 (Istanbul · GMT+3).

Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid Match Prediction & Odds

Our model's prediction for Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid is an Atletico Madrid win at about 39% probability, priced 2.35 at EU bookmakers. The full match-result split is Athletic Bilbao 32%, draw 29%, Atletico Madrid 39%. These are probability estimates, not certainties — the most likely outcome still loses much of the time.

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