Athletic Bilbao 0-1 Atletico Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 31 Aug 2024

📅31/08/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.57
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
38%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.78
Over 2.5
43%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
3.04
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.84
6+ Goals
9%
16.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.04 — our 31% vs market 27.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.02
1/2
7%
29.5
1/X
8%
13.05
X/1
10%
5.74
X/2
14%
5.32
X/X
15%
4.3
2/1
9%
31.5
2/2
16%
3.6
2/X
7%
12.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
35%
-2.1pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.3pp
38%
Away Win
37%
+0.8pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.8pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Athletic Bilbao EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Madrid EU Bookmakers 40%
+4% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -1%
1.52/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.47
+12% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -18%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
325 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 77%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
22.3 Crosses 15.5
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Athletic Bilbao
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Atletico Madrid
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.44 xG 0.90
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
349 Passes 447
77% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 22
21 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.04.2024 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 3-1 HT 1-1 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
29.02.2024 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 3-0 HT 2-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İSPK
07.02.2024 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 0-1 HT 0-1 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İSPK
16.12.2023 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 2-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
19.02.2023 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 1-0 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
15.10.2022 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Athletic Bilbao
0-1
AWAY Atletico Madrid
0.29 xG 1.73
53% Ball Possession 47%
8 Total Shots 9
1 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 2
508 Passes 439
87% Pass Accuracy 84%
20 Box Touches 15
20 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Madrid squeezed past Athletic Bilbao 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (33% / 29% / 38%) promised a tight game; Atletico Madrid found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Athletic Bilbao had 53% of the ball to Atletico Madrid's 47%, shots finished 8-9, expected goals 0.29 to 1.73 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Atletico Madrid's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Athletic Bilbao and 0.83 for Atletico Madrid.

What was the final score of Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid?

Athletic Bilbao 0-1 Atletico Madrid in the Spain - Primera Liga on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Athletic Bilbao 33%, draw 29%, Atletico Madrid 38%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Madrid), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Madrid) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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