Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Athletic Bilbao v Atletico Madrid — Team-Based Signals
Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-0
HT 0-0
Atletico Madrid
İS1
1-0
HT 0-0
Athletic Bilbao
İS1
0-1
HT 0-0
Atletico Madrid
İS1
Athletic Bilbao 0-1 Atletico Madrid — Actual Match Statistics
Atletico Madrid squeezed past Athletic Bilbao 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match split (33% / 29% / 38%) promised a tight game; Atletico Madrid found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Athletic Bilbao had 53% of the ball to Atletico Madrid's 47%, shots finished 8-9, expected goals 0.29 to 1.73 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Atletico Madrid's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Athletic Bilbao and 0.83 for Atletico Madrid.
What was the final score of Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid?
Athletic Bilbao 0-1 Atletico Madrid in the Spain - Primera Liga on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid?
Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Athletic Bilbao 33%, draw 29%, Atletico Madrid 38%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Madrid), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.