Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Atletico Madrid v Athletic Bilbao — Team-Based Signals
Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-0
HT 0-0
Atletico Madrid
İS1
1-0
HT 0-0
Athletic Bilbao
İS1
Atletico Madrid 1-0 Athletic Bilbao — Actual Match Statistics
Atletico Madrid squeezed past Athletic Bilbao 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Atletico Madrid as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%) came in.
On the day, Atletico Madrid had 50% of the ball to Athletic Bilbao's 50%, shots finished 12-15, expected goals 2.24 to 1.12.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Atletico Madrid and 1.17 for Athletic Bilbao.
What was the final score of Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao?
Atletico Madrid 1-0 Athletic Bilbao in the Spain - Primera Liga on 01/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao?
Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Atletico Madrid 43%, draw 28%, Athletic Bilbao 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Madrid), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.