Exeter City 1-0 Cambridge United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.66
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
24%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
53%
1.86
Over
47%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.85
No
53%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1
29%
3.22
2-3
40%
1.78
4-5
21%
3.64
6+
10%
14.9
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.22 — our 29% vs market 25.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.2
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.1
X/1
11%
3.89
X/2
7%
9.52
X/X
12%
4.94
2/1
11%
24.0
2/2
10%
7.61
2/X
10%
15.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
56%
-7.4pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.2pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+4.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
50%
+2.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
50%
-2.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
50%
-2.7pp
53%
BTTS No
50%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Exeter City EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Cambridge United EU Bookmakers 23%
-21% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -14%
1.34/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.26
-15% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -11%
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
326 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 224 · 65%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
20.9 Crosses 17.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Exeter City
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Cambridge United
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.30 xG 1.41
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
325 Passes 219
73% Pass Accuracy 63%
24 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.01.2024 Exeter City Exeter City 0-0 HT 0-0 Cambridge United Cambridge United İN1
22.12.2023 Cambridge United Cambridge United 2-0 HT 1-0 Exeter City Exeter City İN1
25.02.2023 Exeter City Exeter City 2-0 HT 1-0 Cambridge United Cambridge United İN1
13.08.2022 Cambridge United Cambridge United 2-1 HT 0-1 Exeter City Exeter City İN1
04.12.2021 Cambridge United Cambridge United 2-1 HT 1-1 Exeter City Exeter City FAK
10.04.2021 Cambridge United Cambridge United 1-4 HT 0-2 Exeter City Exeter City İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Exeter City
1-0
AWAY Cambridge United
0.85 xG 0.85
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
318 Passes 211
75% Pass Accuracy 65%
23 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Exeter City vs Cambridge United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Exeter City edged past Cambridge United 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Exeter City as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Exeter City had 56% of the ball to Cambridge United's 44%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 0.85 to 0.85.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cambridge United led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Exeter City and 1.17 for Cambridge United.

What was the final score of Exeter City vs Cambridge United?

Exeter City 1-0 Cambridge United in the England - 1st Division on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Exeter City vs Cambridge United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Exeter City win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Exeter City 49%, draw 27%, Cambridge United 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Exeter City), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Exeter City) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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