Charlton Athletic 1-0 Birmingham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.75
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
47%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.95
Over 2.5
50%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.52
2-3 Goals
36%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.4
6+ Goals
13%
12.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.52 — our 29% vs market 23.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
6.56
1/2
8%
23.15
1/X
7%
14.9
X/1
8%
8.66
X/2
15%
4.11
X/X
10%
5.08
2/1
9%
34.5
2/2
24%
2.32
2/X
8%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
23%
+5.7pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.2pp
47%
Away Win
53%
-5.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.2pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Charlton Athletic EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Birmingham EU Bookmakers 57%
+8% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +34% / +34%
1.11/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/0.66
+3% / +46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -22%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
262 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 77%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.0
17.4 Crosses 16.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Charlton Athletic
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Birmingham
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.25 xG 1.42
52% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
311 Passes 288
75% Pass Accuracy 72%
20 Box Touches 28
18 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 3
13.08.2024 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic 0-1 HT 0-1 Birmingham Birmingham İNLK
15.07.2020 Birmingham Birmingham 1-1 HT 0-0 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic İNCL
14.09.2019 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic 0-1 HT 0-0 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL
02.04.2016 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic 2-1 HT 1-1 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL
21.11.2015 Birmingham Birmingham 0-1 HT 0-0 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic İNCL
25.04.2015 Birmingham Birmingham 1-0 HT 0-0 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Charlton Athletic
1-0
AWAY Birmingham
0.79 xG 0.13
37% Ball Possession 63%
6 Total Shots 3
1 Shots on Target 0
5 Corners 5
187 Passes 384
67% Pass Accuracy 77%
11 Box Touches 10
20 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Charlton Athletic vs Birmingham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Charlton Athletic nicked a narrow win over Birmingham 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Birmingham at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Charlton Athletic had 37% of the ball to Birmingham's 63%, shots finished 6-3, expected goals 0.79 to 0.13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Birmingham led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Charlton Athletic and 0.83 for Birmingham.

What was the final score of Charlton Athletic vs Birmingham?

Charlton Athletic 1-0 Birmingham in the England - 1st Division on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Charlton Athletic vs Birmingham?

Before kick-off our model rated an Birmingham win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Charlton Athletic 29%, draw 25%, Birmingham 47%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Birmingham)
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