Lincoln City 2-1 Leyton Orient — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.12
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
23%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.62
Over 2.5
39%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.9
No
58%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.6
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.54
6+ Goals
9%
24.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.6 — our 34% vs market 32.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.14
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.0
X/1
17%
4.54
X/2
8%
6.4
X/X
13%
4.03
2/1
7%
29.5
2/2
10%
5.06
2/X
9%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
44%
+4.4pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.7pp
23%
Away Win
28%
-5.0pp
61%
Under 2.5
58%
+2.7pp
39%
Over 2.5
42%
-2.7pp
42%
BTTS Yes
49%
-6.6pp
58%
BTTS No
51%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lincoln City EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Leyton Orient EU Bookmakers 32%
-3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +1%
1.15/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.27
-22% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +13%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
262 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 72%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
17.3 Crosses 16.1
1.7 Yellow Cards 3.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lincoln City
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Leyton Orient
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.56 xG 1.06
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
246 Passes 298
68% Pass Accuracy 72%
11 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.03.2024 Lincoln City Lincoln City 1-0 HT 0-0 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient İN1
21.11.2023 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 0-1 HT 0-0 Lincoln City Lincoln City İN1
03.10.2023 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 1-0 HT 1-0 Lincoln City Lincoln City İN1
22.04.2006 Lincoln City Lincoln City 1-1 HT 1-1 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient İN2
15.10.2005 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 1-1 HT 1-0 Lincoln City Lincoln City İN2
22.02.2005 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 1-1 HT 0-1 Lincoln City Lincoln City İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lincoln City
2-1
AWAY Leyton Orient
1.15 xG 0.71
35% Ball Possession 65%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
140 Passes 365
53% Pass Accuracy 75%
10 Box Touches 24
12 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lincoln City vs Leyton Orient
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lincoln City squeezed past Leyton Orient 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lincoln City as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lincoln City had 35% of the ball to Leyton Orient's 65%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 1.15 to 0.71.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lincoln City had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Lincoln City and 0.67 for Leyton Orient.

What was the final score of Lincoln City vs Leyton Orient?

Lincoln City 2-1 Leyton Orient in the England - 1st Division on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lincoln City vs Leyton Orient?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lincoln City win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Lincoln City 48%, draw 29%, Leyton Orient 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lincoln City) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lincoln City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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