Wrexham 4-1 Northampton Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 5 Oct 2024

Wrexham
4-1 HT 2-1
Northampton Town
📅05/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
England - 1st Division – 2024/2025

Wrexham vs Northampton Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.53
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
28%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.0
Over 2.5
50%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.7
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
22%
3.28
6+ Goals
11%
11.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.7 — our 28% vs market 21.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1.96
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.1
X/1
20%
3.76
X/2
9%
11.25
X/X
10%
5.6
2/1
7%
22.7
2/2
12%
8.83
2/X
7%
16.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
61%
-13.5pp
25%
Draw
22%
+2.7pp
28%
Away Win
17%
+10.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
46%
+4.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
54%
-4.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.7pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Wrexham v Northampton Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Wrexham EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Northampton Town EU Bookmakers 21%
+15% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +0%
1.60/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.71/1.63
+26% / +80% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -12%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
364 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 70%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
25.5 Crosses 13.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0

Wrexham vs Northampton Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Wrexham
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Northampton Town
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
10 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
The Meetings
25.02.2006 Wrexham Wrexham 0-1 HT 0-0 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN2
13.08.2005 Northampton Town Northampton Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Wrexham Wrexham İN2
16.03.2002 Northampton Town Northampton Town 4-1 HT 1-1 Wrexham Wrexham İN1
01.12.2001 Wrexham Wrexham 3-2 HT 1-1 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN1
02.03.2001 Wrexham Wrexham 3-0 HT 2-0 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN1
30.09.2000 Northampton Town Northampton Town 2-2 HT 1-2 Wrexham Wrexham İN1

Wrexham 4-1 Northampton Town — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Wrexham
4-1
AWAY Northampton Town
1.70 xG 1.07
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
330 Passes 216
78% Pass Accuracy 73%
25 Box Touches 13
24 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Wrexham vs Northampton Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Wrexham ran out comfortable winners over Northampton Town 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Wrexham as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Wrexham had 59% of the ball to Northampton Town's 41%, shots finished 15-14, expected goals 1.70 to 1.07.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Wrexham and 1.50 for Northampton Town.

What was the final score of Wrexham vs Northampton Town?

Wrexham 4-1 Northampton Town in the England - 1st Division on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Wrexham vs Northampton Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Wrexham win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Wrexham 47%, draw 25%, Northampton Town 28%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Wrexham) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Wrexham) ✗ BTTS No
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