Peterborough United 2-1 Stevenage — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 5 Oct 2024

Peterborough United
2-1 HT 1-0
Stevenage
📅05/10/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - 1st Division – 2024/2025

Peterborough United vs Stevenage Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.19
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
31%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.78
Over 2.5
43%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.09
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.79
6+ Goals
9%
16.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.09 — our 30% vs market 26.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.22
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
8%
12.9
X/1
14%
4.95
X/2
13%
6.31
X/X
12%
4.33
2/1
11%
28.0
2/2
11%
4.54
2/X
9%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
42%
-1.8pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.1pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+0.7pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.4pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.9pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Peterborough United v Stevenage — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Peterborough United EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Stevenage EU Bookmakers 34%
-2% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -6%
1.40/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/0.88
+11% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / +31%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
348 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 228 · 66%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
19.1 Crosses 16.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.5

Peterborough United vs Stevenage Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Peterborough United
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Stevenage
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.77 xG 1.16
61% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
388 Passes 160
80% Pass Accuracy 61%
30 Box Touches 25
16 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
13.03.2024 Peterborough United Peterborough United 3-1 HT 1-0 Stevenage Stevenage İN1
28.11.2023 Stevenage Stevenage 2-2 HT 2-0 Peterborough United Peterborough United İN1
30.08.2022 Peterborough United Peterborough United 1-2 HT 1-1 Stevenage Stevenage İNTK
23.08.2022 Stevenage Stevenage 1-0 HT 0-0 Peterborough United Peterborough United İNLK
19.11.2019 Peterborough United Peterborough United 2-0 HT 1-0 Stevenage Stevenage FAK
09.11.2019 Stevenage Stevenage 1-1 HT 0-0 Peterborough United Peterborough United FAK

Peterborough United 2-1 Stevenage — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Peterborough United
2-1
AWAY Stevenage
0.95 xG 1.11
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 7
8 Corners 9
364 Passes 244
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 33
21 Crosses 28
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Peterborough United vs Stevenage
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Peterborough United squeezed past Stevenage 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 29% / 31%) promised a tight game; Peterborough United found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Peterborough United had 58% of the ball to Stevenage's 42%, shots finished 12-17, expected goals 0.95 to 1.11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Peterborough United and 1.17 for Stevenage.

What was the final score of Peterborough United vs Stevenage?

Peterborough United 2-1 Stevenage in the England - 1st Division on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Peterborough United vs Stevenage?

Before kick-off our model rated a Peterborough United win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Peterborough United 40%, draw 29%, Stevenage 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Peterborough United) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Peterborough United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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