Charlton Athletic 0-1 Birmingham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - League Cup, 13 Aug 2024

📅13/08/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.57
Draw
31%
3.28
Away
28%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.97
Over 2.5
44%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.61
No
52%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
3.73
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
21%
3.26
6+ Goals
9%
11.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.73 — our 31% vs market 21.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.98
1/2
9%
26.5
1/X
8%
12.45
X/1
14%
6.09
X/2
7%
5.42
X/X
18%
4.72
2/1
12%
29.0
2/2
12%
3.38
2/X
5%
12.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
35%
+5.6pp
31%
Draw
27%
+3.8pp
29%
Away Win
38%
-9.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
47%
+8.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
53%
-8.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.4pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Charlton Athletic EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Birmingham EU Bookmakers 42%
-31% / -31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +26% / +26%
0.50/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/0.30
-94% / +45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / +150%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
319 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 74%
5.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.0
21.0 Crosses 17.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Charlton Athletic
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Birmingham
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.25 xG 1.66
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
317 Passes 259
75% Pass Accuracy 70%
20 Box Touches 31
18 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 3
15.07.2020 Birmingham Birmingham 1-1 HT 0-0 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic İNCL
14.09.2019 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic 0-1 HT 0-0 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL
02.04.2016 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic 2-1 HT 1-1 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL
21.11.2015 Birmingham Birmingham 0-1 HT 0-0 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic İNCL
25.04.2015 Birmingham Birmingham 1-0 HT 0-0 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic İNCL
04.10.2014 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic 1-1 HT 1-0 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Charlton Athletic
0-1
AWAY Birmingham
1.27 xG 0.96
37% Ball Possession 63%
11 Total Shots 16
1 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 3
256 Passes 517
77% Pass Accuracy 88%
19 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Charlton Athletic vs Birmingham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Birmingham squeezed past Charlton Athletic 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Charlton Athletic at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Charlton Athletic had 37% of the ball to Birmingham's 63%, shots finished 11-16, expected goals 1.27 to 0.96.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Charlton Athletic and 0.83 for Birmingham.

What was the final score of Charlton Athletic vs Birmingham?

Charlton Athletic 0-1 Birmingham in the England - League Cup on 13/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Charlton Athletic vs Birmingham?

Before kick-off our model rated a Charlton Athletic win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Charlton Athletic 41%, draw 31%, Birmingham 29%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Charlton Athletic) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Charlton Athletic) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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