Wycombe Wanderers 1-0 Crawley Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.57
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
26%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
52%
2.1
Over
48%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1
27%
4.07
2-3
39%
1.85
4-5
24%
3.08
6+
10%
9.82
Value flag · 0-1 at 4.07 — our 27% vs market 19.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.98
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.4
X/1
15%
3.88
X/2
7%
10.9
X/X
12%
5.8
2/1
9%
21.85
2/2
14%
8.19
2/X
7%
16.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
59%
-11.0pp
25%
Draw
23%
+2.6pp
26%
Away Win
18%
+8.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.1pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Wycombe Wanderers EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Crawley Town EU Bookmakers 21%
+1% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +1%
1.65/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.05
-13% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / +57%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
322 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 223 · 64%
31.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.5
24.4 Crosses 13.0
1.2 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Wycombe Wanderers
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Crawley Town
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
52% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
21.03.2018 Crawley Town Crawley Town 2-3 HT 1-2 Wycombe Wanderers Wycombe Wanderers İN2
18.11.2017 Wycombe Wanderers Wycombe Wanderers 4-0 HT 0-0 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
25.02.2017 Wycombe Wanderers Wycombe Wanderers 1-2 HT 1-1 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
06.08.2016 Crawley Town Crawley Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Wycombe Wanderers Wycombe Wanderers İN2
28.12.2015 Wycombe Wanderers Wycombe Wanderers 2-0 HT 1-0 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
29.08.2015 Crawley Town Crawley Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Wycombe Wanderers Wycombe Wanderers İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Wycombe Wanderers
1-0
AWAY Crawley Town
1.60 xG 0.31
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
263 Passes 377
71% Pass Accuracy 80%
27 Box Touches 12
17 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Wycombe Wanderers vs Crawley Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Wycombe Wanderers edged past Crawley Town 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Wycombe Wanderers as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Wycombe Wanderers had 44% of the ball to Crawley Town's 56%, shots finished 9-8, expected goals 1.60 to 0.31 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Wycombe Wanderers's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Wycombe Wanderers had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Wycombe Wanderers and 0.83 for Crawley Town.

What was the final score of Wycombe Wanderers vs Crawley Town?

Wycombe Wanderers 1-0 Crawley Town in the England - 1st Division on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Wycombe Wanderers vs Crawley Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Wycombe Wanderers win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Wycombe Wanderers 48%, draw 25%, Crawley Town 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Wycombe Wanderers), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Wycombe Wanderers) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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