Pisa 3-1 Cesena — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 5 Oct 2024

Pisa
3-1 HT 2-0
Cesena
📅05/10/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.38
Draw
26%
3.04
Away
32%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.64
Over 2.5
48%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.88
No
50%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.62
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
4.49
6+ Goals
11%
23.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.58
1/2
10%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.2
X/1
12%
5.1
X/2
11%
5.87
X/X
13%
3.88
2/1
7%
31.5
2/2
11%
4.39
2/X
8%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
38%
+3.7pp
26%
Draw
29%
-3.1pp
32%
Away Win
32%
-0.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
57%
-5.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
43%
+5.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.4pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pisa EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Cesena EU Bookmakers 36%
+1% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -14%
1.34/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.41
+12% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / -3%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
269 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 72%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
21.9 Crosses 13.6
2.9 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pisa
2W-0D-3L
AWAY Cesena
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.77 xG 2.06
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
360 Passes 327
78% Pass Accuracy 75%
23 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 4
25.09.2024 Pisa Pisa 0-1 HT 0-0 Cesena Cesena İTK
08.04.2017 Pisa Pisa 0-1 HT 0-0 Cesena Cesena İTB
13.11.2016 Cesena Cesena 2-0 HT 1-0 Pisa Pisa İTB
09.02.2008 Pisa Pisa 3-0 HT 0-0 Cesena Cesena İTB
09.09.2007 Cesena Cesena 1-2 HT 1-1 Pisa Pisa İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pisa
3-1
AWAY Cesena
1.73 xG 1.18
37% Ball Possession 63%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 7
211 Passes 419
72% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Pisa vs Cesena
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pisa beat Cesena 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Pisa as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Pisa had 37% of the ball to Cesena's 63%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 1.73 to 1.18.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Cesena led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Pisa and 1.00 for Cesena.

What was the final score of Pisa vs Cesena?

Pisa 3-1 Cesena in the Italy - Serie B on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pisa vs Cesena?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pisa win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Pisa 42%, draw 26%, Cesena 32%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pisa) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pisa) ✗ Under 2.5
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