Athletic Carpi 2-1 Pontedera — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.47
Draw
24%
3.11
Away
33%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.74
Over 2.5
42%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.81
No
56%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.9
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.03
6+ Goals
10%
18.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.9 — our 33% vs market 28.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
22%
X/2
15%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
13%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
37%
+6.5pp
24%
Draw
29%
-4.8pp
33%
Away Win
34%
-1.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
54%
+4.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
46%
-4.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-7.1pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Athletic Carpi EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Pontedera EU Bookmakers 38%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +13%
2.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.26
+72% / -47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -12%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
302 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Athletic Carpi
2-1
AWAY Pontedera
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 22
5 Shots on Target 10
4 Corners 13
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Athletic Carpi vs Pontedera
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Athletic Carpi squeezed past Pontedera 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Athletic Carpi as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Athletic Carpi had 45% of the ball to Pontedera's 55%, shots finished 8-22.

What was the final score of Athletic Carpi vs Pontedera?

Athletic Carpi 2-1 Pontedera in the Italy - Serie C on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Athletic Carpi vs Pontedera?

Before kick-off our model rated a Athletic Carpi win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Athletic Carpi 43%, draw 24%, Pontedera 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Athletic Carpi) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Athletic Carpi) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTC More Italy - Serie C
5 Oct 2024
00:00 Sestri Levante vs Vis Pesaro Analysis →
16:00 Novara vs Pergolettese Analysis →
16:00 Triestina vs Pro Vercelli Analysis →
16:00 Milan II vs Pianese Analysis →
16:00 Juventus II vs Rossoblu Potenza Analysis →
18:30 Lumezzane vs Trento AC Analysis →