Novara 3-1 Pergolettese — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.96
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
27%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.56
Over 2.5
44%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.06
No
54%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.39
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
5.03
6+ Goals
9%
30.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
47%
-2.3pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.2pp
27%
Away Win
25%
+2.1pp
56%
Under 2.5
60%
-4.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
40%
+4.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.4pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Novara EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Pergolettese EU Bookmakers 29%
-3% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -10%
1.27/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.40
-2% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -13%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
339 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Novara
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Pergolettese
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
52% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 2
24.03.2024 Pergolettese Pergolettese 1-1 HT 1-0 Novara Novara İTC
19.11.2023 Novara Novara 2-1 HT 0-1 Pergolettese Pergolettese İTC
02.04.2023 Novara Novara 1-2 HT 1-2 Pergolettese Pergolettese İTC
30.11.2022 Pergolettese Pergolettese 1-0 HT 1-0 Novara Novara İTC
03.04.2021 Novara Novara 0-0 HT 0-0 Pergolettese Pergolettese İTC
13.12.2020 Pergolettese Pergolettese 2-0 HT 0-0 Novara Novara İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Novara
3-1
AWAY Pergolettese
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 8
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Novara vs Pergolettese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Novara beat Pergolettese 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Novara as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Novara had 50% of the ball to Pergolettese's 50%, shots finished 10-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pergolettese led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Novara and 1.17 for Pergolettese.

What was the final score of Novara vs Pergolettese?

Novara 3-1 Pergolettese in the Italy - Serie C on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Novara vs Pergolettese?

Before kick-off our model rated a Novara win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Novara 45%, draw 28%, Pergolettese 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Novara) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Novara) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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