Pergolettese 1-1 Novara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 24 Mar 2024

📅24/03/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.47
Draw
27%
2.88
Away
39%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.51
Over 2.5
43%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.06
No
55%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.25
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
5.49
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
20%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
37%
-2.5pp
27%
Draw
31%
-3.8pp
39%
Away Win
32%
+6.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
62%
-5.8pp
43%
Over 2.5
38%
+5.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.8pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pergolettese EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Novara EU Bookmakers 36%
+5% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -5%
1.36/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/1.30
+17% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / -11%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
274 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 387 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pergolettese
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Novara
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 4
19.11.2023 Novara Novara 2-1 HT 0-1 Pergolettese Pergolettese İTC
02.04.2023 Novara Novara 1-2 HT 1-2 Pergolettese Pergolettese İTC
30.11.2022 Pergolettese Pergolettese 1-0 HT 1-0 Novara Novara İTC
03.04.2021 Novara Novara 0-0 HT 0-0 Pergolettese Pergolettese İTC
13.12.2020 Pergolettese Pergolettese 2-0 HT 0-0 Novara Novara İTC
02.02.2020 Pergolettese Pergolettese 2-2 HT 1-2 Novara Novara İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pergolettese
1-1
AWAY Novara
48% Ball Possession 52%
5 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 3
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Pergolettese vs Novara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pergolettese and Novara shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 27% / 39% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (57%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, Pergolettese had 48% of the ball to Novara's 52%, shots finished 5-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pergolettese had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Pergolettese and 0.83 for Novara.

What was the final score of Pergolettese vs Novara?

Pergolettese 1-1 Novara in the Italy - Serie C on 24/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pergolettese vs Novara?

Before kick-off our model rated an Novara win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Pergolettese 34%, draw 27%, Novara 39%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Novara), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Novara) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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