Lucchese 0-1 Cesena — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 24 Mar 2024

📅24/03/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.46
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
43%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.56
Over 2.5
43%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.06
No
57%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.39
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
5.02
6+ Goals
7%
30.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
11%
X/2
19%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
26%
+5.8pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.9pp
43%
Away Win
46%
-3.9pp
57%
Under 2.5
60%
-3.0pp
43%
Over 2.5
40%
+3.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-1.3pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lucchese EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Cesena EU Bookmakers 50%
+8% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +23%
1.06/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/0.56
+0% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +75%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
283 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 369 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lucchese
1W-2D-2L
AWAY Cesena
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
48% Ball Possession 52%
7 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
19.11.2023 Cesena Cesena 3-0 HT 0-0 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
01.04.2023 Cesena Cesena 1-1 HT 1-1 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
29.11.2022 Lucchese Lucchese 1-0 HT 0-0 Cesena Cesena İTC
02.02.2022 Cesena Cesena 1-1 HT 1-0 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
05.09.2021 Lucchese Lucchese 1-2 HT 1-0 Cesena Cesena İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lucchese
0-1
AWAY Cesena
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 7
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lucchese vs Cesena
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cesena squeezed past Lucchese 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Cesena as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Lucchese had 59% of the ball to Cesena's 41%, shots finished 13-8.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Cesena led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Lucchese and 1.40 for Cesena.

What was the final score of Lucchese vs Cesena?

Lucchese 0-1 Cesena in the Italy - Serie C on 24/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lucchese vs Cesena?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cesena win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Lucchese 31%, draw 26%, Cesena 43%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cesena), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Cesena) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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