Arezzo 2-0 Fermana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 24 Mar 2024

📅24/03/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.47
Draw
27%
3.8
Away
16%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.64
Over 2.5
39%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.4
No
62%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.61
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.52
6+ Goals
6%
24.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.61 — our 37% vs market 32.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
21%
X/2
4%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
64%
-7.3pp
27%
Draw
23%
+3.9pp
16%
Away Win
13%
+3.4pp
61%
Under 2.5
57%
+3.4pp
39%
Over 2.5
43%
-3.4pp
38%
BTTS Yes
38%
+0.7pp
62%
BTTS No
62%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arezzo EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Fermana EU Bookmakers 16%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +8%
1.72/0.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.64/1.67
+1% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +1%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
425 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arezzo
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Fermana
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 4
19.11.2023 Fermana Fermana 2-3 HT 0-1 Arezzo Arezzo İTC
13.03.2021 Arezzo Arezzo 1-0 HT 0-0 Fermana Fermana İTC
09.12.2020 Fermana Fermana 0-0 HT 0-0 Arezzo Arezzo İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arezzo
2-0
AWAY Fermana
51% Ball Possession 49%
20 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Arezzo vs Fermana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arezzo got the better of Fermana 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Arezzo as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (62%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Arezzo had 51% of the ball to Fermana's 49%, shots finished 20-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Arezzo had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Arezzo and 0.67 for Fermana.

What was the final score of Arezzo vs Fermana?

Arezzo 2-0 Fermana in the Italy - Serie C on 24/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arezzo vs Fermana?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arezzo win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Arezzo 57%, draw 27%, Fermana 16%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arezzo), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Arezzo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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