Elversberg 1-0 Kaiserslautern — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.09
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
34%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.38
Over 2.5
48%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.46
No
49%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
25%
5.12
2-3 Goals
42%
1.96
4-5 Goals
22%
2.74
6+ Goals
11%
7.04
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.12 — our 25% vs market 14.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.86
1/2
8%
28.5
1/X
7%
12.45
X/1
16%
5.19
X/2
16%
6.89
X/X
14%
5.64
2/1
6%
22.3
2/2
10%
4.24
2/X
6%
12.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
44%
-5.2pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.3pp
34%
Away Win
31%
+3.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
38%
+14.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
62%
-14.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
64%
-13.8pp
49%
BTTS No
36%
+13.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Elversberg EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Kaiserslautern EU Bookmakers 34%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -9%
1.27/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.41
+4% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -2%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
302 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 76%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
17.9 Crosses 19.3
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Elversberg
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Kaiserslautern
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.95 xG 1.61
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
303 Passes 276
72% Pass Accuracy 76%
24 Box Touches 28
12 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.02.2024 Elversberg Elversberg 2-1 HT 1-1 Kaiserslautern Kaiserslautern AL2
18.08.2023 Kaiserslautern Kaiserslautern 3-2 HT 1-0 Elversberg Elversberg AL2
18.07.2018 Elversberg Elversberg 2-3 HT 1-2 Kaiserslautern Kaiserslautern HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Elversberg
1-0
AWAY Kaiserslautern
1.73 xG 1.80
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
242 Passes 298
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 27
17 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Elversberg vs Kaiserslautern
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Elversberg edged past Kaiserslautern 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 27% / 34% — and on the day Elversberg made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Elversberg had 46% of the ball to Kaiserslautern's 54%, shots finished 13-16, expected goals 1.73 to 1.80.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Kaiserslautern led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Elversberg and 2.33 for Kaiserslautern.

What was the final score of Elversberg vs Kaiserslautern?

Elversberg 1-0 Kaiserslautern in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Elversberg vs Kaiserslautern?

Before kick-off our model rated a Elversberg win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Elversberg 39%, draw 27%, Kaiserslautern 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Elversberg), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Elversberg) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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