Atletico Mineiro 2-2 Vitoria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.8
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
26%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.52
Over 2.5
41%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.19
No
58%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.31
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
5.27
6+ Goals
7%
33.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.44
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.3
X/1
16%
3.86
X/2
8%
9.09
X/X
17%
3.78
2/1
8%
31.5
2/2
10%
8.09
2/X
8%
16.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
52%
-7.7pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.2pp
26%
Away Win
19%
+6.5pp
59%
Under 2.5
62%
-3.3pp
41%
Over 2.5
38%
+3.3pp
42%
BTTS Yes
42%
+0.7pp
58%
BTTS No
58%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria EU Bookmakers 22%
-3% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +8%
1.44/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/0.88
+11% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -2%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
368 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 77%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.2
22.5 Crosses 18.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Mineiro
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Vitoria
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.72 xG 1.44
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
428 Passes 253
83% Pass Accuracy 74%
18 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
21.06.2024 Vitoria Vitoria 4-2 HT 2-1 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
26.08.2018 Vitoria Vitoria 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
22.04.2018 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-1 HT 1-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
25.09.2017 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 1-3 HT 1-1 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
11.06.2017 Vitoria Vitoria 2-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
08.09.2016 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-1 HT 1-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Mineiro
2-2
AWAY Vitoria
1.00 xG 0.96
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 5
416 Passes 309
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
26 Box Touches 17
11 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Atletico Mineiro vs Vitoria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Mineiro and Vitoria shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Atletico Mineiro at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Atletico Mineiro had 56% of the ball to Vitoria's 44%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 1.00 to 0.96.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vitoria led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Atletico Mineiro and 2.00 for Vitoria.

What was the final score of Atletico Mineiro vs Vitoria?

Atletico Mineiro 2-2 Vitoria in the Brazil - Serie A on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Mineiro vs Vitoria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Mineiro win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Atletico Mineiro 44%, draw 30%, Vitoria 26%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Mineiro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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