Gremio 3-1 Fortaleza — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.05
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
30%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.74
Over 2.5
48%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.85
No
51%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.86
2-3 Goals
45%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.07
6+ Goals
9%
19.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.99
1/2
10%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.75
X/1
14%
4.53
X/2
9%
6.61
X/X
12%
4.31
2/1
8%
27.5
2/2
12%
5.08
2/X
6%
14.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
45%
+0.1pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.1pp
30%
Away Win
28%
+2.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
54%
-1.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
46%
+1.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.2pp
51%
BTTS No
50%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gremio EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortaleza EU Bookmakers 32%
+5% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -14%
1.50/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.56
+15% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -16%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
327 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 79%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
17.9 Crosses 18.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gremio
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Fortaleza
0.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.11 xG 1.69
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
370 Passes 349
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
20.06.2024 Fortaleza Fortaleza 1-0 HT 1-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
30.09.2023 Fortaleza Fortaleza 1-1 HT 1-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
14.05.2023 Gremio Gremio 0-0 HT 0-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
14.10.2021 Fortaleza Fortaleza 1-0 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
28.06.2021 Gremio Gremio 0-0 HT 0-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
10.01.2021 Fortaleza Fortaleza 0-0 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gremio
3-1
AWAY Fortaleza
1.69 xG 0.32
38% Ball Possession 62%
16 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 2
261 Passes 493
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
25 Box Touches 10
21 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Gremio vs Fortaleza
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gremio got the better of Fortaleza 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Gremio as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Gremio had 38% of the ball to Fortaleza's 62%, shots finished 16-7, expected goals 1.69 to 0.32.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fortaleza led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for Gremio and 0.50 for Fortaleza.

What was the final score of Gremio vs Fortaleza?

Gremio 3-1 Fortaleza in the Brazil - Serie A on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gremio vs Fortaleza?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gremio win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Gremio 45%, draw 25%, Fortaleza 30%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gremio) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gremio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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