Gremio vs Fortaleza Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Gremio v Fortaleza — Team-Based Signals
Gremio vs Fortaleza Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 1-0
Gremio
BR1
0-0
HT 0-0
Fortaleza
BR1
1-0
HT 0-0
Gremio
BR1
0-0
HT 0-0
Fortaleza
BR1
0-0
HT 0-0
Gremio
BR1
Gremio 3-1 Fortaleza — Actual Match Statistics
Gremio got the better of Fortaleza 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we said in the preview, our model had Gremio as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.
On the day, Gremio had 38% of the ball to Fortaleza's 62%, shots finished 16-7, expected goals 1.69 to 0.32.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fortaleza led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for Gremio and 0.50 for Fortaleza.
What was the final score of Gremio vs Fortaleza?
Gremio 3-1 Fortaleza in the Brazil - Serie A on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Gremio vs Fortaleza?
Before kick-off our model rated a Gremio win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Gremio 45%, draw 25%, Fortaleza 30%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gremio) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.