Atletico Paranaense 0-1 Botafogo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 5 Oct 2024

Atletico Paranaense
0-1 HT 0-1
Botafogo
📅05/10/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✓
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.84
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
39%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.75
Over 2.5
49%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.81
No
48%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.96
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
3.94
6+ Goals
10%
17.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.56
1/2
9%
27.5
1/X
5%
14.3
X/1
13%
6.09
X/2
11%
4.68
X/X
13%
4.51
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
19%
3.17
2/X
10%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
32%
+2.0pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.4pp
39%
Away Win
42%
-3.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
53%
-2.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
47%
+2.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.5pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atletico Paranaense v Botafogo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Paranaense EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Botafogo EU Bookmakers 46%
+4% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +5%
1.37/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.09
+13% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -17%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
296 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 397 · 82%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.2
19.5 Crosses 21.2
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.1

Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Paranaense
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Botafogo
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.32 xG 0.65
43% Ball Possession 57%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
275 Passes 382
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
20.06.2024 Botafogo Botafogo 1-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
22.10.2023 Botafogo Botafogo 1-1 HT 1-1 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
04.06.2023 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 1-0 HT 1-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
01.06.2023 Botafogo Botafogo 1-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BRK
18.05.2023 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 3-2 HT 0-2 Botafogo Botafogo BRK
13.11.2022 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 3-0 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1

Atletico Paranaense 0-1 Botafogo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Paranaense
0-1
AWAY Botafogo
1.60 xG 1.18
53% Ball Possession 47%
26 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
364 Passes 316
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 15
35 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botafogo squeezed past Atletico Paranaense 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (33% / 28% / 39%) promised a tight game; Botafogo found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Atletico Paranaense had 53% of the ball to Botafogo's 47%, shots finished 26-11, expected goals 1.60 to 1.18 — on chances, Atletico Paranaense could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Paranaense had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Atletico Paranaense and 0.83 for Botafogo.

What was the final score of Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo?

Atletico Paranaense 0-1 Botafogo in the Brazil - Serie A on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Botafogo win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Atletico Paranaense 33%, draw 28%, Botafogo 39%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Botafogo), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Botafogo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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