CRB 3-2 Paysandu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 5 Oct 2024

CRB
3-2 HT 1-1
Paysandu
📅05/10/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.89
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
25%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.56
Over 2.5
40%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.09
No
59%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.38
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
5.06
6+ Goals
7%
30.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
49%
-2.7pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.3pp
25%
Away Win
23%
+2.4pp
60%
Under 2.5
60%
-0.4pp
40%
Over 2.5
40%
+0.4pp
41%
BTTS Yes
44%
-3.1pp
59%
BTTS No
56%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CRB EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Paysandu EU Bookmakers 26%
+2% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +10%
1.27/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.08
+12% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +49% / -8%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
337 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 75%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
19.1 Crosses 19.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CRB
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Paysandu
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.53 xG 1.82
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
249 Passes 266
70% Pass Accuracy 74%
14 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
13.04.2021 Paysandu Paysandu 1-2 HT 1-1 CRB CRB BRK
20.02.2020 Paysandu Paysandu 1-1 HT 1-1 CRB CRB BRK
10.10.2018 Paysandu Paysandu 1-1 HT 1-1 CRB CRB BR2
24.06.2018 CRB CRB 1-1 HT 0-0 Paysandu Paysandu BR2
14.10.2017 Paysandu Paysandu 0-0 HT 0-0 CRB CRB BR2
24.06.2017 CRB CRB 2-1 HT 0-1 Paysandu Paysandu BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CRB
3-2
AWAY Paysandu
1.53 xG 1.03
48% Ball Possession 52%
21 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 0
251 Passes 284
74% Pass Accuracy 75%
30 Box Touches 11
22 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH CRB vs Paysandu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CRB nicked a narrow win over Paysandu 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had CRB as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, CRB had 48% of the ball to Paysandu's 52%, shots finished 21-8, expected goals 1.53 to 1.03.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, CRB had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for CRB and 0.83 for Paysandu.

What was the final score of CRB vs Paysandu?

CRB 3-2 Paysandu in the Brazil - Serie B on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CRB vs Paysandu?

Before kick-off our model rated a CRB win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split CRB 46%, draw 28%, Paysandu 25%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CRB) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (CRB) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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