Ituano 1-0 Guarani FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.12
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
32%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.51
Over 2.5
43%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.09
No
55%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.25
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
5.47
6+ Goals
9%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
13%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
43%
-3.4pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.9pp
32%
Away Win
27%
+4.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
62%
-5.5pp
43%
Over 2.5
38%
+5.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.6pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ituano EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Guarani FC EU Bookmakers 31%
+2% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +3%
1.05/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.15
-12% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +8%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
292 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 81%
17.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
22.4 Crosses 18.6
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ituano
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Guarani FC
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.41 xG 1.14
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
241 Passes 372
74% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Box Touches 18
14 Crosses 31
3 Yellow Cards 4
19.06.2024 Guarani FC Guarani FC 3-3 HT 0-1 Ituano Ituano BR2
05.08.2023 Ituano Ituano 1-1 HT 0-1 Guarani FC Guarani FC BR2
29.04.2023 Guarani FC Guarani FC 1-0 HT 1-0 Ituano Ituano BR2
21.01.2023 Guarani FC Guarani FC 0-0 HT 0-0 Ituano Ituano BREPAU
09.10.2022 Ituano Ituano 2-1 HT 1-0 Guarani FC Guarani FC BR2
29.06.2022 Guarani FC Guarani FC 0-2 HT 0-1 Ituano Ituano BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ituano
1-0
AWAY Guarani FC
1.10 xG 0.98
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
361 Passes 283
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 15
21 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ituano vs Guarani FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ituano nicked a narrow win over Guarani FC 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 29% / 32% — and on the day Ituano made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Ituano had 54% of the ball to Guarani FC's 46%, shots finished 10-17, expected goals 1.10 to 0.98.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ituano had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Ituano and 1.00 for Guarani FC.

What was the final score of Ituano vs Guarani FC?

Ituano 1-0 Guarani FC in the Brazil - Serie B on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ituano vs Guarani FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ituano win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Ituano 40%, draw 29%, Guarani FC 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ituano), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ituano) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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