Ponte Preta 1-0 Botafogo SP — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.18
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
28%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.48
Over 2.5
41%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.16
No
55%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.16
2-3 Goals
42%
1.81
4-5 Goals
19%
5.81
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
13%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
8%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+0.6pp
29%
Draw
30%
-0.2pp
28%
Away Win
28%
-0.3pp
59%
Under 2.5
64%
-4.6pp
41%
Over 2.5
36%
+4.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
42%
+3.0pp
55%
BTTS No
58%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ponte Preta EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Botafogo SP EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
1.16/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/0.82
-5% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / -17%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
310 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 79%
17.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
21.1 Crosses 20.2
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ponte Preta
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Botafogo SP
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.86 xG 0.91
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
382 Passes 260
83% Pass Accuracy 76%
15 Box Touches 15
14 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
20.06.2024 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 2-0 HT 0-0 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
12.08.2023 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 0-0 HT 0-0 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
03.05.2023 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 2-0 HT 0-0 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP BR2
17.02.2022 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 0-1 HT 0-0 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP BREPAU
14.05.2021 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 0-0 HT 0-0 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP BREPAU
14.03.2021 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 0-1 HT 0-1 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BREPAU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ponte Preta
1-0
AWAY Botafogo SP
0.61 xG 0.67
36% Ball Possession 64%
9 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
123 Passes 293
57% Pass Accuracy 78%
10 Box Touches 10
8 Crosses 19
5 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Ponte Preta vs Botafogo SP
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ponte Preta squeezed past Botafogo SP 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Ponte Preta as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Ponte Preta had 36% of the ball to Botafogo SP's 64%, shots finished 9-9, expected goals 0.61 to 0.67.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Ponte Preta and 0.50 for Botafogo SP.

What was the final score of Ponte Preta vs Botafogo SP?

Ponte Preta 1-0 Botafogo SP in the Brazil - Serie B on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ponte Preta vs Botafogo SP?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ponte Preta win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Ponte Preta 43%, draw 29%, Botafogo SP 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ponte Preta), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ponte Preta) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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